Reform California analysis says early vote data suggests a “Red Wave” may be forming — but California conservatives still face headwinds in the deep blue state
Over the Summer, many California Republicans began to fear that the anticipated national “Red Wave” predicted for Republicans in this November’s midterm elections may turn into no more than a trickle in California.
Now that the California Secretary of State has released the first early ballot return data for the November 8th General Election, Reform California says so far it’s good news for Republicans.
“While we don’t know how these voters voted, we do know who is voting — and who is voting this early is pretty telling,” said Carl DeMaio, Chairman of Reform California.
“According to the tally of early votes returned so far, the Republican and conservative independent share of early voters in California has spiked – and Democrat turnout is significantly depressed,” he continued.
In its analysis, Reform California compared the first week of ballot returns in the 2021 Recall Election, the 2022 Primary Election and the current 2022 General Election in California. Here’s the different share of early votes for each political party in each of those elections:
Democrat Share of Early Ballot Returns
Nov 2022: 48% (DOWN 10% from 2021 Recall)
June 2022: 52%
Republican Share of Early Ballot Returns
Nov 2022: 28% (UP 7% from 2021 Recall)
June 2022: 24%
Independent Share of Early Ballot Returns
Nov 2022: 24% (UP 1% from 2021 Recall)
June 2022: 24%
TOTAL: 427,816 (4% of Registered Voters)
“The data is showing a stunning 17-point swing in favor of Republicans since the 2021 Recall Election,” explained DeMaio.
“What's even better, the analysis of our 24 target races shows our turnout is even higher in those areas,” DeMaio enthused.
But DeMaio warns that a Republican landslide is not a foregone conclusion.
“This is still California — and I’m not saying we will sweep every seat on the ballot — but we do have a chance at some massive gains,” said DeMaio. “But that won’t happen if we don’t continue to work hard and push conservative and independent voters to vote throughout the final weeks of the election,” he continued.
DeMaio and Reform California have prepared their annual voter guide at ElectionGuideCalifornia.org to help explain to voters what’s on their ballot in “Plain English” and boost turnout for key candidates.
In addition to using and sharing the voter guide to help elect these reform-minded candidates, DeMaio is urging the public to join the campaign today to help get the voter guide in the hands of key target voters.
“We still have an uphill battle in California to win our target seats and defeat the tax hikes on the ballot, but we can do it if you help us get this guide out before it’s too late!” concluded DeMaio.
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