A new swing state poll suggests former President Donald Trump would defeat Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly in the 2024 presidential election.
The survey, which was conducted by Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage between August 28 and August 30, predicts Trump would sweep 44 electoral votes, narrowly winning in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The former president was also predicted to win in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, in surveys conducted between August 29 and August 31.
Last week, an Emerson College Polling survey showed a tight race between Harris and Trump in swing states. Both candidates reportedly had leads by margins of 3% or less in three battleground states, respectively, and are tied at 48% in Pennsylvania.
Harris led by a 49% to 48% margin in Georgia; 50% to 47% in Michigan; and 49% to 48% in Nevada. Trump was reported to be ahead a 50% to 47% in Arizona; 49% to 48% in North Carolina; and 49% to 48% in Wisconsin.
“The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump continues to be tight, within each state’s margin of error,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Harris leads Trump among independents in each state, with the exception of Nevada, where Trump leads 50% to 44%. There is also a stark gender divide, similar to that of 2020. In six of the seven swing states, Harris leads Trump among women, however, in Arizona, Trump has a two-point edge on Harris among women voters, a group that broke for Biden by about three points in 2020.”
Harris is, however, leading Trump in six battleground states -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- among independent voters while Trump has the advantage in Nevada.
Harris is reported to be ahead of Trump by a 47.2% to 43.7% margin, according to polling averages conducted by FiveThirtyEight.com, however, Trump is currently projected to surpass the 270 electoral vote threshold to be elected based on state polling, leading in several battleground states, according to RealClearPolling.com. Last month, a CBS News/YouGov poll projected that Harris and Trump were both reported to be at 50% among likely voters in battleground states, while Harris has a 51% to 48% edge nationally.
Harris also has a 56% advantage in support from women while Trump has a 54% edge among men. Trump famously defeated former First Lady and Senator Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election despite trailing by 6.5 points in polls.
Clinton won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College by a 304 to 227 margin. Trump also trailed President Joe Biden by nine points in polls leading up to the 2020 presidential election, however, lost by just 4.4 percentage points.