Erick Erickson opens an open line Friday revisiting the Ilhan Omar story, playing her own words to Chris Hayes and reading a Pirate Wires piece by Ashley Rindsberg that argues Snopes and the fact-check industry waved away questions about her father, Nur Omar Mohammed, while noting the immigration investigation began under the Biden administration. He then turns to the midterms: the Fox News poll with James Talarico and Ken Paxton tied in Texas, rural Georgia early voting down 50 percent from 2022, fake polls from firms like SoCal Strategies, Abdul El-Sayed on defense in Michigan, and farmer anger over tariffs. He also calls Vivek Ramaswamy's Amy Acton ad political malpractice for every Ohio Republican forced to answer for it.

• Ilhan Omar's clip with Chris Hayes, her father Nur Omar Mohammed, the Snopes "mostly false" rating, and why Erick says the investigation started under Biden, not Trump
• How Dan Rather, Power Line, Snopes, and PolitiFact explain the rise of the media fact-check industry and the left-wing narrative it protects
• Fox News poll shows James Talarico and Ken Paxton dead even in the Texas Senate race, plus rural Georgia early voting down 50 percent per the AJC's Patricia Murphy
• Fake polls and midterm Senate races: SoCal Strategies, 50 Plus One, Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers in Michigan, Peggy Flanagan, David Jolly, Angie Nixon, Ashley Moody, Sherrod Brown, and an 8 point Democratic generic ballot lead
• Tariffs hurting farmers in Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas, Argentine beef imports, and Vivek Ramaswamy's Amy Acton ad dragging Ohio Republicans into a fight

Texas Governor Greg Abbott joins Erick Erickson to sound the alarm on record Democratic early voting in the Texas governor race against Gina Hinojosa, as a new Fox News poll shows James Talarico and Ken Paxton dead even in the Senate race. Erick then spotlights rural Georgia turnout down 50 percent from 2022, tells Republicans to skip the line they dislike but still vote, and makes the case that tariffs have become the Republican anchor with a net negative 39 percent approval. He also explains why he does not believe the Vanity Fair story on Jared Kushner and lays out what the data says about marriage, free markets, and a successful society.

• Gov. Greg Abbott on Texas early voting, the Gina Hinojosa campaign, CAIR's endorsement, property taxes, and oil and gas
• Fox News poll: James Talarico and Ken Paxton tied 49 to 49 in the Texas Senate race, and why turnout decides it
• Rural Georgia early voting down 50 percent from 2022, Rick Jackson, Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the absentee ballot deadline
• Tariffs as the GOP anchor: Democrats spent more than $58 million on anti-tariff ads, Republicans spent nothing, and corruption is the top voter issue
• Why Erick does not buy the Vanity Fair Jared Kushner story, plus the Louvre closing over French riots and the case for marriage and free markets

Erick Erickson says he could hold his nose and vote for Ken Paxton just to keep James Talarico out of the Texas Senate, while refusing to back Mike Collins in Georgia, and argues voters must be earned, not browbeaten into voting the team. Breaking news that the Trump administration will cut 50 percent Canada tariffs to help Susan Collins in Maine leads into a hard look at Iran, with Brent crude near $117, the Dow down nearly 600 points, a working oil blockade, and reports the U.S. and Israel plan regime change after the midterms. He also covers the Defense Production Act for petroleum, bipartisan permitting reform, and New York City's nonprofit property bill.

• Ken Paxton versus James Talarico in the Texas Senate race, Katie Tur on MS NOW, Angie Nixon's vote the team message, and why polls may undercount Republicans
• Why Erick leaves the Mike Collins Georgia Senate line blank, and why corruption is the top word tied to the GOP in polling
• Wall Street Journal: Trump to cut 50 percent Canada tariffs for Susan Collins in Maine and Mike Rogers in Michigan, and the case that tariffs are bad policy and a bad precedent
• Iran: Brent crude at $116.80, the U.S. oil blockade draining the shadow fleet, Tom Barrack's strike warning, and Israeli and American day two plans for regime change after November 3
• Defense Production Act for petroleum and diesel prices, the bipartisan permitting reform bill, the Loper Bright decision, Starlink in Ukraine, and the New York City nonprofit first-dibs property bill

Breaking news: Virginia Senate President Pro Tem Louise Lucas is arrested on federal drug trafficking charges tied to her marijuana dispensary, while Erick Erickson sounds the alarm on Republican early voting turnout in Georgia and Texas, where Rick Jackson is calling in Ted Cruz and Republicans risk handing Keisha Lance Bottoms the governor's mansion. Erick explains why every vote, and every blank line on the ballot, sends a message to the parties, and answers pastor Josh Howerton on whether voting is a message. Plus a Glasgow museum pulls its Egyptian mummies over "informed consent."

• Louise Lucas arrested on federal drug trafficking charges: Virginia Senate, marijuana dispensary raid, and why Democrats are not rallying to her
• Midterm panic: Republicans not showing up in early voting, Florida the exception, with alarm bells in Georgia and Texas
• Georgia governor race: Rick Jackson campaign summons Ted Cruz as Keisha Lance Bottoms threatens Republicans on the statewide ticket
• Vote the whole ballot or leave a line blank: the under vote, Josh Howerton's "voting is not a message" claim, and the bad-sandwich theory of party candidates
• Kelvin Grove Art Gallery and Museum in Glasgow pulls its mummies for lack of consent; caller Jerry from Dayton, Ohio on why primaries matter most

The New York Times confirms what Republicans said all along: Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed signed a letter defending the Muslim Brotherhood and urging Mohamed Morsi to purge Egypt's press and police, and Erick Erickson explains what it means for Mike Rogers. Erick breaks down early voting in Texas, where Greg Abbott looks strong and James Talarico is a problem, the Ken Paxton blame game, Rick Jackson in Georgia, and Susan Collins in Maine. Plus the Starshield blame game over Elon Musk and Ukraine, and a Czech president's claim that Trump's Russia sanctions waiver killed a peace deal.

• Abdul El-Sayed and the Muslim Brotherhood: the New York Times confirms the Michigan Senate candidate signed a letter defending the Brotherhood and urging Morsi to purge the Egyptian press and police, after he denied it on Meet the Press
• Michigan Senate race: Mike Rogers may win on early voting data, El-Sayed trouble with black Democrats, and why Democratic Socialists of America hijacking the party is a wake-up call if Troy Jackson also loses in Maine
• Texas early voting: Greg Abbott looks like a winner, James Talarico backed by CAIR, the Ken Paxton baggage and restitution deal, the Libertarian protest vote, and Neil Bush's Talarico endorsement
• Vote the whole ballot: Rick Jackson's story in Georgia versus Keisha Lance Bottoms, Susan Collins in Maine, and why leaving a line blank beats staying home
• Starshield and Ukraine: Elon Musk, Rubio, Hegseth and the White House point fingers while Europe is furious, plus the Czech president says Trump's Russian diesel sanctions waiver sank a peace deal

1. Abdul El-Sayed's Muslim Brotherhood letter 

The New York Times reports that Abdul El-Sayed signed a letter supporting the Muslim Brotherhood while he was a medical student. His campaign declined to comment. 

2. Vivek Ramaswamy's Amy Acton ad

Vivek Ramaswamy's ad features Amy Acton's mother challenging her daughter's truthfulness. JD Vance declined to denounce the ad, and Ohio Republican candidates are fielding questions about it. 

3. Starlink service in Ukraine

Trump asked Elon Musk to restore Starlink connectivity after service failures affected Ukraine's defenses against Russian attacks. 

4. Corey Lewandowski inquiry

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Justice Department is examining allegations that Corey Lewandowski profited from his position at the Department of Homeland Security. The inquiry follows a referral from the department's inspector general.

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Erick Erickson opens with rural Georgia voters staying home, then plays Harry Enten on CNN's new poll showing Trump at 32 percent approval and Democrats up 10 on the generic ballot. He explains why Vivek Ramaswamy's ad attacking Amy Acton's family history, and JD Vance's defense of it, has every Republican on the Ohio ticket playing defense in the governor and Senate races. Plus Abdul El-Sayed's Muslim Brotherhood letter, the Trump lame duck problem and the 2028 bench, the New York Times report on renewed Iran strikes after the midterms, and why California's $126 billion high-speed rail shows America needs competence in government.

• Georgia early voting: rural Georgia is not turning out, Republicans are in a panic, and the suburbs are voting in higher numbers
• Harry Enten and CNN: Trump approval at a record low 32 percent, a Democratic plus 10 generic ballot, and the 1946 Truman and 2006 George W. Bush midterm comparisons
• Ohio governor race: Vivek Ramaswamy doubles down on his Amy Acton ad, JD Vance defends it, and Sherrod Brown benefits while Ohio Republicans take the heat
• Michigan Senate race: Abdul El-Sayed signed a letter backing the Muslim Brotherhood, and co-signers donated more than $25,000 to his campaign
• Lame duck Trump and 2028: Republican breaks on Russia and Ukraine, tariffs hurting Georgia farmers, the New York Times on Iran strikes after the midterms, and a deep GOP bench led by Brian Kemp, Ron DeSantis, Glenn Youngkin and Greg Abbott
• Competence in government: the Wall Street Journal on California's $126 billion high-speed rail and why both parties are losing the independent voters

Erick Erickson breaks down why Republican strategists are in full meltdown mode two weeks before the midterms after the New York Times/Siena College poll showed Democrats up 11 on the generic ballot, and why he thinks the polling, including the fake Wedgwood numbers, overstates the Democrats in key Senate races from Texas and Ohio to Iowa and Alaska. Then he rips Vivek Ramaswamy for doubling down on an ad aimed at Ohio Democrat Amy Acton's family, and ties it all to Trump's $5,000 payout pitch, his Putin and Ukraine moves, and the TikTok problem he says the president created.

• New York Times/Siena College poll, Democrats +11 on the generic congressional ballot, and why Erick thinks Republicans are overreacting
• Wedgwood Polls admits posting fake data; why the RealClearPolitics average and swing-state polling matter more than national polls
• Senate races: Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico in Texas, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Roy Cooper, Jon Ossoff, Susan Collins, and Mary Peltola
• Vivek Ramaswamy doubles down on the Amy Acton ad in the Ohio governor race while JD Vance tells Republicans to stop whining
• Trump's $5,000 payout pitch, the Putin and Zelensky land-for-peace news, Christianity Today's Elisabeth Elliot article, and TikTok's grip on young voters

Erick Erickson reacts to Volodymyr Zelensky telling Fox News he will accept a ceasefire that freezes the lines in Ukraine, while the White House, Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, and Elon Musk each give a different story about why Starshield and Starlink service went down. Erick then takes calls on JD Vance's post-liberal worldview of American decline and spheres of influence with Russia and China, argues that decline is a choice, and previews the feds' DNA evidence hunt in the Ilhan Omar investigation.

• Zelensky tells Brian Kilmeade on Fox News he will freeze the front lines for a ceasefire and security guarantees, as Steve Witkoff meets Vladimir Putin in Moscow
• Starshield and Starlink Ukraine shutdown: conflicting explanations from Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, the White House, and Elon Musk, plus the European contract fallout
• JD Vance's Western Hemisphere, spheres of influence worldview versus the Trump and Marco Rubio view, with Ohio's Ukrainian immigrant vote, Max Miller, and Tucker Carlson in the mix
• Caller debates on Putin, Xi Jinping, and the global order, and why Erick says the dollar, the American banking system, and the rule of law make decline a choice, with Wired's Americans who fled to Europe story
• Elena Kagan's Catholic University remarks versus the New York Times coverage, Democrats like James Talarico backing Supreme Court expansion, and a teaser on the Ilhan Omar DNA evidence probe