Erick opens with a progressive tech writer's essay about neighbors named Bob and Van, men whose politics never came up because politics was not the whole of life, and turns it into an argument that social media has catechized both parties out of normalcy. He plays Bill Maher's Real Time monologue on radical Islamism, Osama bin Laden's polling among young Americans, and the parallel between 2020 stolen election claims and Gaza genocide claims as tribal loyalty tests, then walks the Senate Leadership Fund's $25 million ad buy across seven states and explains what the missing Georgia money says about Mike Collins, Jon Ossoff, and the AI generated attack ad nobody asked for. He closes on Ken Paxton's AI generated James Talarico ad, Abdul El-Sayed's refusal to answer for Hasan Piker in Michigan, and President Trump lifting tariffs on Irish whiskey as a favor.

TOPICS

• Where have all the normal people gone: the Bob and Van essay, Lindsay Clancy defenders on TikTok, Beau French and the University of Texas photo, and why normal people who work, watch football, and skip conventions still decide elections
• Bill Maher on Real Time: radical Islamism versus Western liberalism, one in five young Americans with a favorable view of Osama bin Laden, Luigi Mangione, and the stolen election and Gaza genocide as matching tribal loyalty tests
• Senate Leadership Fund drops $25 million across Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Alaska, with nothing for Mike Collins in Georgia and the Trump super PAC covering Texas instead
• The AI generated ad problem: the Ossoff ad calling him too pretty for office, Ken Paxton's AI James Talarico bible spot, and why using fake video when real video exists is political malpractice
• Abdul El-Sayed dodges on Hasan Piker in Michigan, John Sununu versus Chris Pappas puts New Hampshire in play, plus Irish whiskey tariff favors, the 10 year Treasury yield at 5%, Speaker Mike Johnson and David Sacks on AI regulation, and Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson's step by step progress on crime

1. Trump and the AI regulation fight.

Trump's opposition to AI guardrails puts regulatory capture and competition with China at the center of the debate. The case against tighter controls rests on concerns that major companies could shape rules to protect their own interests.

2. Treasury yields and federal spending.

The 10-year Treasury's move to 5%, as cited in the episode, raises questions about borrowing costs and fiscal discipline. Trump's proposed $5,000 payments face scrutiny alongside spending decisions by both parties.

3. China's AI dilemma.

A warning attributed to China's top spy chief highlights concerns about AI's potential to destabilize one-party rule. The discussion connects those fears with information control and a reported disruption involving WeChat.

4. Russia targets Ukrainian rail routes.

Attacks on trains serving Ukraine raise concerns about travel and Western support. Ukraine's expanding long-range weapons production adds another dimension to the war, alongside the argument that Russia's tactics reflect growing pressure.

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Erick Erickson takes a caller's tale of two Georgia ad campaigns, Rick Jackson's brutal and effective spots against Keisha Lance Bottoms versus the One Nation tax ads carrying Mike Collins against Jon Ossoff, and turns it into the central question of the 2026 midterms: a blue wave is coming, but is the red wall the GOP built taller than the wave? He stakes out his own call of a 10 to 15 seat Democratic House pickup with the Senate holding, walks through New Hampshire, Michigan, North Carolina, Maine, Texas, Iowa, and Kansas, and plays the Roger Marshall town hall where Republicans in the crowd, not just the progressive hecklers, start booing the moment he defends tariffs. In the back half he digs into the ProPublica report that a Russian oligarch quietly bankrolled Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding, then explains in plain language why a $5,000 tariff dividend check would pour fuel on inflation right as the Federal Reserve decides whether to raise interest rates.

• The Georgia ad war: Rick Jackson defining Keisha Lance Bottoms on crime while she has no money to answer, the One Nation $2,100 tax increase ad against Jon Ossoff, why the Mike Collins makeup attack is political malpractice, and the Trafalgar poll showing Ossoff up 49 to 43
• Blue wave versus red wall: Erick's 10 to 15 seat House call against Mark Halperin's 25, why the Senate map still favors Republicans in New Hampshire, Michigan, Iowa, Alaska, Nebraska, and Florida, and what a Democratic Senate would mean for JD Vance in 2028
• Roger Marshall gets booed in Kansas by his own voters over tariffs, JD Vance campaigning in a state Republicans should not have to defend, the Real Clear Politics average showing a 50-50 Senate, and the 6.7 point Democratic generic ballot lead
• ProPublica reports Russian oligarch Umar Kremlev secretly bankrolled Donald Trump Jr.'s wedding, Eric Trump says he has no idea who the man is, and why Erick still rejects the Russian stooge theory while calling this an unforced gift to Democrats
• Affordability is the number one issue: data center construction propping up the economy while driving concrete, aluminum, and chip prices up, the 50% tariff on Canadian lumber, nine straight months of wages trailing inflation, and why Erick says the $5,000 check is a Diocletian style mistake the Federal Reserve will have to clean up

1. Saudi Oil Pipeline Attack Raises Red Sea Concerns

   A reported projectile attack has shut down a Saudi oil pipeline, with Houthi involvement suspected but not confirmed. The disruption adds to concerns about Red Sea shipping, Iranian escalation and pressure on U.S. missile supplies.

2. Inflation and a Possible Federal Reserve Rate Hike

   Inflation continues to pressure household budgets as wages struggle to keep pace. Energy prices and tariffs remain central concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve's next meeting, with a possible interest rate increase adding uncertainty for borrowers and financial markets.

3. Reflecting Pool Contractor Acknowledges Repair Failures

   The contractor responsible for work on Washington's Reflecting Pool has acknowledged repair problems behind damage to the liner. The development undercuts earlier vandalism claims as crews face additional work to address the pool's problems.

4. America Marks 25 Years Since September 11

   The 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks brings remembrance of the lives lost and the sacrifices made that day. Amid renewed threats and economic uncertainty, the anniversary also offers a moment for reflection, faith and prayer for the country and its leaders.

Text ERICK to 33-777 for "Show Notes" and to stay updated on all things Erick Erickson.

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Stay grounded, stay informed, and keep the faith.

On the 25th anniversary of September 11, 2001, Erick Erickson opens not with the news but with Welles Crowther, the 24 year old equities trader on the 104th floor of the South Tower who tied a red bandana around his face, carried an injured woman down 17 floors, and went back up the stairs again and again until he died alongside firefighters in the lobby. Prompted by a question from his daughter Evelyn about whether Americans have turned misery into a way of honoring the day, Erick draws a hard line between grieving and honoring, reads the names of the 2,977 dead, and argues that the unity of September 12 was cheap unity because fear is free. He revisits Todd Beamer and Flight 93, the 343 firefighters and 71 police officers, Article 5 of NATO, Cantor Fitzgerald's 658 employees, President Trump's posthumous Presidential Medal of Freedom for Crowther, and the algorithmic outrage industry that now profits from keeping Americans sorted into factions.

• Welles Crowther, the red bandana, the 78th floor sky lobby, and the Tunnel to Towers Foundation touring the South Tower stairwell as Trump awards him the Presidential Medal of Freedom
• Erick's answer to his daughter Evelyn: grief fades with time and is private, honor is public and chosen, and a country that only knows how to grieve on September 11 has made an idol of the day
• Why the post 9/11 unity was cheap: Gettysburg 1913, British poppies, the 2000 Florida recount, Jim Jeffords, and unity that only shows up when a building falls on your neighbors
• Todd Beamer, Flight 93, "let's roll," the Pentagon, Article 5 of NATO, and the 2,977 names Erick challenges listeners to scroll through
• Caller Mark in Jacksonville on why America came together after 9/11 and tore itself apart over COVID, plus Erick on Albany Georgia, the conspiracy theorists who still claim controlled demolition, and the algorithm that pays people to divide us
• Erick's own September 11 memory in a middle Georgia law office, the out of town lawyer who insisted the deposition go forward, Adam Milani and Oklahoma City, and the moment he stopped wanting to be a lawyer

Erick Erickson takes apart the Politico story out of the Republican midterm convention in Dallas claiming panic over the Senate map, siding with Chris LaCivita and walking through why a five point Democratic polling bias in September means Republicans in Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, and Texas are actually ahead, not drowning. Then the August consumer price index lands at 3.4 percent, Mark Zandi and Thomas Ryan warn the Federal Reserve may raise rates next week, the 30 year mortgage hits 6.76 percent, and Erick issues a direct challenge to President Trump: take every tariff to zero between now and Election Day and run the experiment.

TOPICS

• The Politico "doom in Dallas" story, Meredith Lee Hill and Aaron Daugherty, and why Erick sides with Chris LaCivita over the anonymous Republican strategists
• The 2020 comparison: Lindsey Graham, Joni Ernst, Roger Marshall, and John Cornyn were all "toss ups" at this exact point and all won comfortably
• Erick's forecast: the GOP loses the House, loses Georgia and North Carolina, but holds the Senate, with Ken Paxton surviving in Texas and Susan Collins preferable to the unvetted alternative
• August CPI at 3.4 percent, gas up 27.4 percent, airline fares up 23 percent, and the Iran war as the energy shock economists including Joe Siedel at JP Morgan blame for it
• The tariff challenge to President Trump, wages running beneath inflation, the 10 year Treasury pushing mortgages to 6.76 percent, and why used car and auto insurance prices are the only things falling
• Caller Alan on broken trust, forty trillion in debt, and a country that has not felt this pulled apart since the Civil War

Erick Erickson closes the 25th anniversary of September 11 by playing the sound a camera crew heard at the World Trade Center that afternoon, more than 300 firefighter PASS device alarms sounding under the rubble, then turns the overwhelming weight of the news into practical advice out of Jeremiah's letter to the exiles in Babylon: seek the welfare of the city in which you live, because Washington is not coming to help you. From there it is an Open Line Friday run through the Lindsay Clancy trial twist, where juror Paula Devlin told Gayle King on CBS that the lone holdout who wanted a guilty verdict was the only black man on the panel, plus Ted Cruz and Dave McCormick warning about a red green alliance of communists and Islamists at the Republican convention, President Trump's wardrobe jab at Ken Paxton, and the $5,000 Trump dividend that landed like a lead balloon with congressional Republicans. Erick ends where he began, with Welles Crowther, the red bandana, and the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

• The PASS device audio from Ground Zero, the 300 plus firefighters lost, and Erick's answer to feeling overwhelmed by inflation, China, Russia, Iran, the Sahel, and fentanyl all at once
• Jeremiah 29 and the Babylonian exile as practical living rather than theology: volunteer at the food bank, read to kids at the elementary school, spend money locally, know your city councilman, because Washington did not storm the towers and is not coming for you
• The Lindsay Clancy jury twist: juror Paula Devlin, Gayle King saying she has to sit with that, the white jurors who wanted not guilty by reason of insanity, and Erick's shot at the online racists who assumed the opposite
• Ted Cruz on the red green alliance, Dave McCormick on socialism returning from the dustbin of history, Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez laughing during the reading of the names, and the al Qaeda volunteer headed to Congress from New Jersey
• Why Israel has not finished the job in Iran: Erdogan, the Turks, the Kurds in northern Iraq, and a president who took his friend's phone call over the war plan
• President Trump on Ken Paxton's wardrobe, the $5,000 Trump dividend Congress does not want, caller Jim at 80 on his schizophrenic brother-in-law and the case for reopening Milledgeville and the mental institutions, and Welles Crowther climbing back up the stairs

1. The Bond Market Warns Washington

   Treasury yields are rising as investors question whether America's fiscal future is secure. Higher yields could lead to higher mortgage rates, credit card rates, auto loans, and borrowing costs for the federal government.

2. Inflation and a Possible Federal Reserve Rate Hike

   Diesel and energy prices are putting additional pressure on the economy. With employment still strong and inflation above the Federal Reserve's target, markets are increasingly expecting interest rates to rise.

3. Iran Rebuilds Its Ballistic Missile Program

   Intelligence reportedly shows that Iran has access to materials needed to resume production of ballistic missiles. The development comes amid growing concerns about Iranian aggression against American forces in the Middle East.

4. Houthis Seize a Strategic Red Sea Port

   Iran-backed Houthi forces have reportedly captured the Yemeni port city of Mokha, increasing their control over a critical shipping route. The development could threaten global trade, shipping, and oil prices.

Despite the troubling economic and national security news, there is still reason for hope. All things work for the good of those called according to God's purposes.

Text ERICK to 33-777 for "Show Notes" and to stay updated on all things Erick Erickson.

www.erickerickson.com

https://www.youtube.com/@ewerickson 

https://rumble.com/ewerickson 

Stay grounded, stay informed, and keep the faith.

Erick opens on President Trump's Dallas convention promise of a $5,000 "Trump dividend" to every adult citizen if Republicans hold the House and Senate, and calls it what it is: a bribe funded by the tariffs listeners are already paying, with JD Vance out on Fox News defending it. His counteroffer is zero income tax for married couples with kids earning under $200,000, money people keep instead of money the government prints and hands back. Then the real story of the hour, the Republican midterm message of common sense versus crazy, as James Talarico scrambles to walk back six genders and a non-binary God, Abdul El-Sayed runs from his 9/11 problem, John Fetterman cuts an ad for Dave McCormick, and a new Tony Fabrizio poll shows Talarico beating Ken Paxton in Texas by four.

• Trump's $5,000 dividend pitch in Dallas, the never-delivered $5,000 DOGE check, and why Erick calls it bribery and "unicorn farts"
• JD Vance on Brett Baier defending tariffs as the funding source, and Erick's rebuttal that American workers pay tariffs through flat wages and higher prices on beef, coffee and bananas
• The better plan: zero income tax on married couples with children under $200,000 instead of a Biden-style $2,000 COVID check that reignites inflation
• Common sense versus crazy: James Talarico backpedaling on SB 14, transgender surgeries for minors and "God is non-binary," plus his Charlie Kirk dodge
• Mike Rogers, Abdul El-Sayed and the 9/11 attack line in Michigan, John Fetterman's ad for Dave McCormick, Jake Tapper on tied Senate races, and the Fabrizio poll red flag with Talarico up four on Ken Paxton